Why Raila Should not Give in to the Wise Men of ODM

Recent reports which indicated that the so called council of elder of the ODM were lining their consensual support for any candidate other than Raila Odinga speaks volumes about the entrenched anti-Luo stereotypes permeating our political culture.

It seems that the prevailing wisdom tell us that for anyone to succeed in capturing the presidency he should NOT be a Luo and should as a matter of necessity get the wholesale support of the very same Luo who are believed could not be trusted with the highest offices.

At independence Jaramogi Odinga was counseled to be selfless and pave way for the self exiled Kenyatta to take over as the first president. The intervening years between Kenyatta and Moi's ascend; the Luo lost a luminary politician with high political prospects – one Tom Mboya. Although, the assassination of Tom Mboya in July 1969 was not a unique loss for the Luo give similar assassination of an equally flamboyant charismatic JM Kariuki in 1975.

But given our intricate tribal arithmetic, Luo's loss of Mboya was relatively costly than JM given the simple fact that the incumbent was a Kikuyu. While JM's death could be viewed as removal of internal threat to a Kikuyu presidency, TJ loss denied the Luos a conceivable shot at the presidency given the political estrangement of Jaramogi, who incidentally had also lost his closest ideologue, Pio Gama Pinto to an assassin in 1965.

The same sad TJ episode was to repeat itself again under President Moi tenure when the brilliantly eloquent Robert Ouko suffered similar brutal death as that of JM Kariuki. Once again, the Luo lost a son who commanded respect beyond Luo Nyanza and whose political prospect were anything but sterile.

Contemporaneous to this was the constant state harassment of the progeny of the octogenarian Jaramogi, particularly Raila Odinga. Here again, the administration of the day viewed a raising political figure in from Nyanza as a threat that could not be left unchecked. Luckily despite the constant rumours of plots to assassinate him, he has survived to experience more delicate intricacies.

At the dawn of de jure multi-party politics in Kenya, Jaramogi Odinga was once again asked to give up rightful quest for the presidency for Kenneth Matiba. The media framed the tussle between the two giants in a manner that painted Jaramogi's quest as a senile obsession. Some commentator even jokingly claimed that his proverbial thirst can quenched by even a 5 minutes stint at State House. The August 1992 split of the potentially powerful Ford was more or less blamed on Jaramogi's state House obsession.

The most bizarre re-incarnation of this anti-Lou presidency yet is the growing clamouring within ODM aimed at prevailing against, Raila Odinga, the most prospective candidate within the loose anti-Kibaki coalition to step aside for either of a number of state House pretenders.

It is behooves one to wonder what form of wisdom dictates that the most visible, the best organized and resourced individual is the least likely to successfully challenge the incumbent. The ODM 'elders' wisdom is not only wanting but laughably stereotypical as it is neither based on any verifiable poll nor political merit.

The most insulting thing about what the purportedly wise elders are seemingly suggesting is their collective abuse of Raila's intelligence and the Luos at large. To suggest that Raila should carry a lesser candidate on his shoulder to State House with a promise of key ministerial position is to assume that MoU did not happen or the current constitutional order will somehow undergo a miraculous metamorphosis and allow a political deal crafted by an ingenious lawyer to prevail post election intricacies.

I am also of the assumption that he is experienced enough to appreciates that given our political version of multi-party politics, a president is eminently facilitated to reconfigures any emergent parliamentary arithmetic irrespective of party affiliation and possibly even in disregard of whimsical pre-electoral agreements for his end as was clearly demonstrated by Kibaki.

I will be extremely surprised if Raila take such fantastical bait. A rescind from his current justifiable position will definitely confirm the 'elders' lowly opinion of his efforts and political prospects and by extension confirm the negative political stereotypes against the Luos. Will Nyasaye forgive him if he once again not hid the calling to serve?

Ahmed M Aideed P.O. Box 7 Namanga