Re: Kenya 2007:Presidential election analysis so far---

From: Nicholas Mireri

 

ANALYSIS OF 2007 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN KENYA

 

Province	Total Registered Voters	President Kibaki	ODM (Without Kalonzo)	Percentage Ratio ratio Kibaki:ODM	Assumptions
Rift Valley	3,381,890	1,014,567	2,367,323	30:70
Eastern	2,383,795	1,430,277	953,518	60:40
Central	2,221,020	2,221,020	NIL	100:0
Nyanza	2,062,712	412,542	1,650,170	20:80
Western	1,592,534	477,760	1,114,774	30:70
Nairobi	1,362,068	681,034	681,034	50:50
Coast	1,198,074	359,422	838,652	20:80
North Eastern	308,432	154,216	154,216	50:50
TOTAL	14,510,525	6,750,838	7,759,687	47:53

 

Notes:

 

1.       Worst Case Scenario: Run-Off in the event that Eastern Province swings 80:20 in favour of President Kibaki.

2.       Ratios are calculated on the higher side in all aspects

3.       In the event that Kalonzo sticks with ODM it will be an outright win for the ODM team

4.       Scenarios are modeled on a 100% voter turnout in every area. However even with a sixty percent voter turn-out the overall win percentage is unlikely to change

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