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NYANZA 2007 WATCH

NTATIKE CONSTITUENCY OPINION POLL AS AT

SEPTEMBER 2006.

1. Hon Tobias Ochola Ogur
: He is very unpopular with the youth who consider him to be too old to serve their interests. They argue that at the age of 71 years his friends who were in the civil service are either dead or retired so he has not links in the employment world. They consider him so playful and as someone who can never talk seriously. The regions of Karungu, Kaler, Seme , Kolal, and Kanyarwanda all feel Ogur has sidelined them all along and they swear to punish him should he contests again. He has small influence in his Kakoth clan, though there too he has strong groups who claim he has only helped those from his sub-clan . He has usually got support from Kanyuor but will perform very poorly this time. Gross misuse of CDF allocation where his close allies alleged to have siphoned a lot of money has brought his popularity on the ground. He plans to use a lot of money to woo voters but the constituents are saying they will take the money but will never give him another mandate to the tenth parliament. The people of Kaler remember how Ogur burnt their houses during the 1995 by-election. The Seme inhabitants are angry that Ogur continue to call the "settlers" and never take their problems seriously. Overall Ogur stands to get at most 8 % of the votes according to our evaluation. He was sent away during the LDP nominations on the ground that he was compromised by the Banana campaign during the referendum .He is always absent from major LDP functions that implies he is uneasy with the current top brass leadership.
2. Zablon Owigo Olan’g
: A perennial looser since Nyatike was hived from the larger Ndhiwa constituency, Owigo is currently the chairman of Lake Basin Development Authority, a position previously held by Odeny Ngure who was a close ally of Raila Odinga. Owigo is said to have been a beneficiary of the tug-of-war between Raila and Mt. Kenya mafia (Kiraitu, Murungararu, Mwiraria) so Olang was seen to be anti-Raila , which made him get their favor. This notion put Olang at a disadvantage in getting the ODM-Kenya nomination, besides many old issues between him and Raila-the defacto leader of ODM-Kenya. The constituents highlights a case when Olan’g’s gang once roughed up Raila’s entourage in the 1995 Nyatike by-election in Karungu centre. This amongst many other factors make Olan’g a poor starter in this race. Majority of his Karungu supporters are also tired of his never-winning-contests all year round and are looking for a worthy candidate who is able to help Nyatike without considering where you come from. They are asking Olang not to resign from his current position but support a person of their choice. If he contests, he will definitely get his usual votes, especially if he contests against Ogur, but can never win the seat by any means. Overall Olan’g can get 11% at the nomination stage.
3. Tiany Anyanga :
He is the loudest so far in this race for Nyatike, making so many announcements on the vernacular radio stations and running around the constituency endlessly. 98% of the people we interviewed consider him arrogant and illiterate. Words doing the round in the constituency has it that he is a form one drop-out, who left school during the second half of his term in form one and later came to look for a job in Nairobi. He got a security job with some private company and was a guard based at the Ministry of Finance until the multiparty wave of 1991 when Prof. George Saitoti was then minister for finance. When the Youth for Kanu ’92 was formed in 1992, through his exposure to Saitoti, he was part of the group assigned to trail the operations of the FORD luminaries in Nyanza province. He left his security job in a hurry and joined the YK92 battalion. When Kanu finally won the 1992 elections, the government evicted some Asians in Kisumu and Anyanga was given one of the Asian residences as a reward for their "good work in trailing Jaramogi and his group". He then sold the house and came back to Nairobi to start his small businesses. He currently deals in imported cars and occasionally take a ride to the constituency with every new car before getting a client to sell to. This way he gives the impression that he is very rich and can change cars even ten times in a month. On the ground, the constituents do not take him seriously since he behaves like a teenager. They have nick-named him "youth-winger". At the LDP party headquaters, the secretariat staff refer to him as "the layman who wants to be Nyatike MP".He boasts to everyone and will never forget to remind you of how poor you are. He believes education is meaningless since he is successful without serious education. He is very much hated with anybody who has gone to school. When we visited South East Kadem, we were told how recently they chased him away due to his nuisance attitude. In Muhuru, he literally insulted them when he told them they are so few to win the Nyatike seat and they should support him instead of having their own candidate. In the last nomination, Tiany got 67 votes and this time round he might manage at most 300 votes .
4. Pollycarp Omollo Ochilo:
He is considered the man who ought to have been the MP for Nyatike in the 2002 elections were it not for his hard-line stand against working closely with NARC team in Luo Nyanza then. Ochilo considers himself with high esteem and insists he can never bow down to anybody, which is his biggest undoing. He is very popular generally but his attitude has made the people rule him out arguing that even if he contests he will still defiantly lose, especially now that his entire 2002 campaign team has deserted him. Members of this team, having closely worked with him realized that they were wasting their time with somebody who will never win so they all moved to support different candidates. Most of them are still in dilemma waiting to see the direction the Nyatike politics will take. One of them has even joined the race against him. His appointment to the NACSC, then under Kiraitu Murungi, confirmed to everybody that he is anti-Raila and that is why Kiraitu rewarded him. Months before this appointment he had applied to become director of KBC but was not considered since they had a feeling he was pro-Raila by then, but when the Mt. Kenya mafia confirmed that he was actually anti-Raila, they quickly seconded him for the anti corruption job. On the ground, people are saying that he gave very many odd promises in 2002 which he has not met, even one. They consider him a big liar who is only interested in using the people as a stepping stone to achieve his goals. He generally enjoys some pocket of support, especially in his Kolal clan and a few high class voters. He was fourth in 2002 and people close to him say he is reluctant to resign from his plum position to contest .He is worse off now having lost the big team that supported him in 2002. He stands to get at most 21% should he join the race.
5. Elias Odhiambo Ratten’g:
He is the youngest of all the contestants in Nyatike and was one of the chief campaigners for Ochilo in 2002. On the ground, our team occasionally came across different youth groups who insisted they want a young MP in 2007 and Ratten’g so far is their favorite. The old voters we came across also think he can win , only that he is very poor compared to the rest of the candidates who have worked enough years to save money for their campaigns. He is occasionally seen campaigning on foot and once in a while hires taxis. All over the constituency, our team noticed Ratteng has a lot of good will since majority of the people we interviewed consider him very neutral and untainted. At Karungu centre, our researcher was told that ever since , Ratten’g is the only contestant from Kadem who may get overwhelming support from Karungu. Everybody who talked about him worried about his ability to finance the campaigns saying that he is lost in Nairobi and have not made serious rounds in the constituency. They specifically credit him for blowing the whistle on the Nyatike CDF misuse when everybody was quiete. They say he is a brave young man who will only lose due to lack of funds. In most centers we visited, most people still believe he is not in the race for this Nyatike seat though they think he can easily win if he gets just a little financial support. He has a fanatical following in his Central Kadem location and is one candidate who can walk to any part of the constituency without any problem.
6. Mark Ogutu:
A first timer in the Nyatike politics, Mark start with numerous disadvantages. He is strongly opposed even by his Kanyarwanda clan given the bad record of his father, ex-chief Herman Ogutu Malala, who again is the treasurer of Nyatike CDF committee. They accuse his father of high handedness and even denied genuine inhabitants identity cards. They also claimed that his uncle Oyier frustrated them when he was provincial commissioner and that Ogutu chief blocked the youth who wanted to enroll as APs. We got into one family who blames Oyier and Ogutu for having hijacked the scholarship for their son who was to proceed to India for further studies and gave the scholarship to their son, Mark Ogutu. The family member was at tears when narrating how this frustrated their son who ended up dying of agony. Away from his Kanyarwanda clan. Ogutu is totally unwanted and people claim that since he considered all Luo ladies in entire Nyanza province unfit for his marriage, and the best lady to him had to come outside the Luo-land, he should then turn to his wife’s people for votes. At Nyandema centre, one old lady said "ka wuod Ogutu nyar Luo nerachne koro kura mar joluo to koro sani berne? Odhi okwa kura Nyeri" literally meaning "if the son of Ogutu considered all Luo ladies ugly but now he wants votes from the Luos, let him seek for votes in Nyeri where he married from". At Seme Magawa, he was recently chased away. In Karungu area, they hate him since he had visited one home where he was given a lot of food with his campaign team but hurriedly disappeared without leaving even a shilling to them. They consider him less serious candidate since he has made several promises across the constituency without fulfilling even one. He had pledged kshs.3,000 to a Karungu funeral committee in Nairobi 4 months ago but is yet to send the money. He also pledged kshs.5000 to a church in Diruma which the congregation has been following up for over 3 months now. He issued kshs.2000 cheque to a women group in south east Kadem which have never been banked to date. Our reporter confirmed that Ogutu has so many hurdles on his way that overcoming them will not be possible.
7. Kennedy Odhiambo Okongo :
After coming sixth in the 2002 general elections, Okongo quickly moved back to support Ogur who rewarded him with the position of chairman, Nytike CDF committee. Nearly all the people we interviewed said that Ogur finished Okongo’s political hope by this appointment since everybody now hates him in the constituency due to the committee’s misuse of the fund. They see him as somebody who has presided over the "rape" of the people’s hope. He hails from the same clan with Ratten’g but going by our findings when our team visited Wath-Ong’er, Nyakwere, Lwanda, Aego, and Agenga, he cannot match Ratten’g even at the locational vote. He is known to slaughter cows regularly, and some people think he is cleansing some demons with these sacrifices, and turnout for his feasts has dwindled day by day. He rarely talks to people and majority of those interviewed think he might rally behind Ogur in 2007 so that he is re-appointed to the CDF chair.

The above report is based on the current political situation on the ground and after doing the rounds in all the constituencies, we will go back to Nyatike to find out if there are any new opinions. We wish all the people of Nyatike the best as they struggle to find a suitable candidate to represent them in the tenth parliament. May the best candidate win and deliver a basket of prosperity to the people on Nyatike without fear or favour.

TOM AKOTH

CHAIRMAN-NYANZA TEAM 2007 WATCH

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