What are ODM's real chances in RValley and Western amidst emerging challenges?

Wuod Luo,

This is my take in the political analysis and as they say 1 day is too long for politics.

1. What are ODM chances in the Kalenjin Rift Valley, in the face of Moi's endorsement of Kibaki?

Moi's endorsement for Kibaki is two sided, it can either spoil for Kibaki or divide the 3 million plus votes from the great rift. This is a political calculation as you saw on yesterdays paper that they are grumbling for a VP position. Moi's endorsement can really spoil for kibaki if the media and all political comentators put them on the deffensive given the known fact that Moi is trying to block any other person who has suffered under his rule to be at the top seat since he made a lot of ills to kenyans in general and to some few individuals. If all the lootings reported by among other sources Kroll and associates are exposed clearly to the electorate, then the voters including the RV voters will see Kibaki covering up corruption as he has done with the Anglo-leasing given the fact that he was given the report in April 2004 and he has not acted on the report till now since that was also the time Anglo-fleecing as also revealed under Kibaki's admistration.

On the other hand Kibaki definitely, politically will pick his VP from RV or Western given the support we have from Western through Mudavadi and RV through Ruto, so choosing a VP from one of these two regions will be a "divide the vote" approach Moi did in 1992/97. This might not go well with ODM since what we need now is basically numbers, and I mean high voter turn out.

2. Is it true that a section of current RV MPs are unpopular with their electorate and are therefore anti ODM simply because their competitors (aspirants) have already identified with the party?

My answer to this is Yes, since most of the aspirants are leaning more on ODM - the incumbents might turn anti ODM which could be apositive thing to ODM especially if there is an overwhelming support for ODM in the RV, remember the FORD wind in 1992 and the Narc -Rainbow wave in 2002. MP's will only support the party with an overwhelming support in their backyards for them to secure back their seats in parliament - more re-alignments will be forth coming in the greater RV and elsewhere in Kenya. That explains why Ngilu too is still sitting on the fence and might even form an ally with Kalonzo if the later stick to his gun and run on ODM-K.

3.What are ODM's chances of galvanizing the 1.5 m votes in Western province, with both Jirongo and Kombo running for presidency? - Our brothers from western should realise one fact that Kombo or Jirongo will never make it as a president if they run alone without support from other communities - they should remember the Orengo, Nyachae positions in 1997/2002 respectively, hence the other option for Kibaki would be to either pick Kombo or retain awori as his VP - I do not know Kituyi's rating in western right now but this will also be a "divide the vote" attitude, and they would rather rally behind Mudavadi in ODM than any alliance with kibabki because remember the VP position with kibaki will be seen as a vote fetching mechanism but also a run for the top post come 2012 and Uhuru, Saitoti are warming up for that.

4.What tactics can ODM employ to yank the solid Bungoma vote from the wings of Kombo/FordK? I think Bungoma people are not entirely against ODM, but will need a lot of skillful persuasion. - this is where Kombo needs to realise my 3rd point and for-go running as a president and instead support ODM because a powerfull and well connected campaign in the greater western province by ODM might even cost him his seat in parliament. What we need here is to form allies with the likes of Kombo and Jirongo because it is evident that nobody can make it to the top seat without forming an alliance with other people and someone who decides to run independently is just doing so in order to spoil for the other person or retain their incumbency.

5.How important is Mutula Kilonzo's frequent, but belated call for unity among the two ODMs? Is ODM stronger with Kalonzo running on his own, or with him back? - Mutula might be making a belated call for unity after they have been cornered between a stone and a hard place, they have realised that ODM is a force and now they are courting for a warn refuge, Kalonzo can not even command the Eastern votes en masse, infact he is only assured of the Kamba votes leaving a bigger percentage of the eastern votes up for grabs more so by Kibaki. The most disadvantaged people now are the Kambas because right now, in Kibaki's camp, they are not even sure of number two slot and neither is in ODM. So Kalonzo might stick to his gun for presidency and put his name in the list of presidential candidates for furture resume building and command the Kamba MP's in parliament or seek an alliance with either Kibaki or ODM with a lesser bargaining power. I am really sympathysing with him because he would have been better placed in the ODM-K with others like Agwambo and he would have been in a good standing as a number 2, now it is still too early to predict but even if he decides to come back through Mutula's intervention, but still Mudavadi might not step down for him the VP post in ODM.

6. What would be the impact of Kalonzo joining Kibaki? If he decides to join Kibaki which he might, would not hold any water at all. What Kalonzo would have done if I were him would have been to stick with ODM-K with other aspirants untill when the nomination of the flag bearer, and if he was beaten down fairly or unfairly he would decamped right then and form an ally with Kibaki that would have won some sympathy from other presidential aspirants in ODM-K that would have boosted his bargaining power with anybody he would have opted to form an alliance with. The mistake he did was to sit on the certificate hoping that he would command the likes of Ruto and Mudavadi and Uhuru to side line his biggest oponent in ODM-K, but he did it so early with perennial loosers like Ojiambo and Nazlim who does not have even a good civic support on the grass roots, so joining Kibaki might not be of any consequent since he is not even sure of a second office unless he wants to swallow his pride and replace Tuju come 2008 if Kibaki wins.

7.Why is Ngilu procrastinating about her political future?, could she be a likely victim of the maddening Kalonzo wave in Ukambani? - My answer would be Yes, a) she rather stick with Kalonzo if kalonzo run as a president to secure he seat b)work some magic to rebel against Kalonzo and convince kambas to reject Kalonzo - which would be tough so that she can deliver not only some Kambas to either ODM or Kibaki party but also to make her seat secure.

Whatever the equation is, right now it is a numeric calculation given the fact that we are going to the election with the current constitution of 25% votes from 5 provinces and a majority of votes to win the presidency! My appeal to ODM supporters is to get votes out on the voting day, we need maximum voter turn out, with these "divide the vote" attitude in Kenya, I am seeing a run off between Kibaki and Raila since it migght be hard for both of them to get 25% from provinces and ODM will beat Kibaki hands down if Jirongo, kombo, Kalonzo run as a presidential candidates to divide western votes. My question also is, is it possible with this tabulation below:

                             ODM                KIBAKI        Others
Nyanza                  95%                  5%                 0%
Western                 60%                  15%               25%
(Jirongo,Kombo)
Central                    5%                    95%               0%
Nairobi                   55%                   45%               0%
RV                         65%                   35%
Coast                      53%                   47%
Eastern                   15%                   38%                47% (Kalonzo)
NEP                        45%                   55%       
               

Obong'o Elisha,
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